The first part is your chance of getting the drop, 10 thousand times. So to find the probability of success over 10,000 tries, we have to do this the following. The percent of failure, therefore, is 99.99% - expressed as a fraction, that's 0.9999 - still with me? (Number of tries multiplied by the FRACTIONAL equivalent of the PERCENT chance of success), minus the (FRACTIONAL equivalent of the PERCENT chance of failure, risen to the power of tries).Ī percent chance of 0.01% is a fraction of 0.0001 - that's success. ![]() The chance of something happening over, like OP says, 10000 tries is expressed as: You already know that 23% is not expressed as 23.00 1% is not expressed as 1.0 so 0.01% cannot possibly be expressed as 0.01. ![]() OP's "logic" is not "irrefutable" because it has nothing to do with an intuitive guess confused the percent chance of success with the decimal expression of that percentage. ![]() "0.01%" is not the same as a decimal of 0.01. The problem is you are confusing the percentages with decimals.
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